An extremly bold prediction

[Freddy]

Do not be surprised to see Keven Rudd return to the ALP Leadership.
For starters, there is no doubt as to his popularity. Lets be honest here, there is still a residual view amongst people that he was "robbed" of the PM ship. The Media love him even more than they do Abbott. He certainly is seen as a clean skin, of sorts. He doesn't have the albatross of a Thomson or a Slipper around his neck, so any of the perceptions of "character", that Abbott has been able to successfully exploit against Gillard would disappear overnight. In fact, against Abbott, he wouldn't even have a contest. There is no way that Abbott could beat Rudd.
In fact, don't be surprised if a Rudd comeback has been gamed here. I wouldn't be overly surprised if one of the reasons that PMJG has announced the Election date so early is to test the waters. Part of her reasoning, no doubt, is to see if the recent slow and steady trend back to the Government in the Polls, is more than a "dead cat bounce". There is still time for a change of leadership, we are not in an election campaign, merely the date on which one will be held has been announced. There is still plenty Parliamentary time to run.
And don't be surprised if any change over is initiated by PMJG either. She has nothing to prove to the ALP, She's earned her place as an ALP legend. But at the end of the day, pragmatism will win out, stopping Abbott ever becoming PM is more important than ego and always will be.

[Earl Grey]

Tell 'im 'e's dreamin'




;D ;D ;D

[Freddy]

Earl, all Parties are about winning elections, even the ALP. If that means bringing Rudd back into the tent, they will. The alternative is an Abbott Government, with idiots like Prissy Pyne and a senior member. Do you seriously think that the ALP will allow their petty egos to allow something like that to happen ?

[Freddy]

I'll put it like this, Abbott can not beat Kevin Rudd in an election.

[Earl Grey]

Feb 2, 2013 13:45:13 GMT 11 Freddy said:

Earl, all Parties are about winning elections, even the ALP. If that means bringing Rudd back into the tent, they will. The alternative is an Abbott Government, with idiots like Prissy Pyne and a senior member. Do you seriously think that the ALP will allow their petty egos to allow something like that to happen ?

"The alternative is an Abbott Government, with idiots like Prissy Pyne and a senior member. Do you seriously think that the ALP will allow their petty egos to allow something like that to happen ?"

Absolutely!

I know about the internal workings of the Labor party.

[Earl Grey]

BTW ...

Have you noticed that OTR has gone completely weird?

Buzzo; Goofy and Flagg have taken over the joint in an anti-Islamic ; swear-fest; red-necked; crazy-arse; loony-toons orgy.

The dump is totally out of control.

[Freddy]

sure have, must be a full moon or something.
I do note that Flagg has been let out of the loony bin

[geopol]

The odour of childish triumphalism is very stong over there....It will get more noticeable in inverse relationship to the quality of the posts.........

[spindrift]

Despite the fact that Labor won't on the basis the factional powers are still there albeit keeping a low profile, Rudd should be reinstated because he has the trust of the people, if Labor members can look past it's own .

Gillard despite having the trust of the factional powers fails to grasp the people do not trust her, the new ocular look doesn't disguise the beady eye's of a power hungry assassinator.

Or if for the women vote and the men who see her qualities then Penny Wong ....she has all the right ingredients for leadership, trust in being honest, intelligent, quck witted and one of Labors main point scorer against Abbott.

My take on it over at NTB1 is the RW are smelling blood with recent polls having gone into a mad frenzy......Princess Tody is simply taking a back seat on the rabid loony tunes sick minded inuendo...no control...totally biased and in agreement of their sentiments.

[pim]

I'd have thought that Julia Gillard got those nice new glasses because they helped her see better and somebody with impeccable taste told her that as well as helping her see better they look good on her. About time she got some good advice on what to wear!

If the Labor Party dump her after leading them through hell and high water over the last two and a bit years to a very impressive legislative record, then they deserve everything they get. They certainly won't get me putting in the hours volunteering for their campaign.

When Rudd was PM he folded after Copenhagen and when he started getting grief from Abbott. I thought at the beginning of 2010 that perhaps with a bovver boy like Abbott giving him grief, that the man who'd buried John Howard's Government would snap out of his funk and start explaining his Government's policies to the Australian people by exposing Abbott's snake oil to the ridicule that it never got and so richly deserved, and within the Labor Party by taking the ETS right up to the nervous nellies by putting his leadership on the line and calling a double dissolution on that issue. It's what Gough would have done. It's what Hawke would have done and it's what Keating would have done. But Rudd imploded.

Say what you like about Gillard - and I've said plenty that isn't flattering - but she doesn't implode. I've been won over by the steel in her backbone and by the leadership that she's shown - leadership that's worth 100 times the leadership that Rudd ever showed. Or, if we take an example from the other side of politics, John Howard who was prepared to take hits, big hits, from his own constituency over the gun control issue and has been vindicated a thousandfold by recent tragic shooting events in the US.

Yes Labor may well lose under Gillard, and lose big time. That's not a reason for Labor to dump her. It is the reason why Labor dumped Rudd, and you want them to repeat the error?

Gillard's policies have been correct for this country and I've always believed that if your policies are correct, that even if you take big hits in the short term and go down in flames, you get vindicated in the end. Witness Arthur Calwell on conscription and Vietnam, and witness John Howard on guns.

Gillard will leave behind her a legislative edifice. Yes I'm sure Tony Abbott will make it appear like an empty shell and he'll bring in his wreckers to do a demolition job. Even if he succeeds in repealing the price on carbon and tearing up the NBN, the fact is that given that those policies were the right ones and addressed real issues of climate change and infrastructure upgrades that this country needs, Tony Abbott will have to face an angry electorate in the future who will hold him and his Liberals accountable: "We're facing these problems and the previous mob had the mechanisms in place to deal with them, and you bastards went in and wrecked 'em!"

I think Abbott's populism will pay off for the Liberals in the short term. But there's a terrible karma that these snake oil merchants and opportunists are storing up for themselves.

It reminds me of the old Professor Manning Clark before he gave his Boyer Lectures on the ABC. The Fraser Government was a bit nervous about what Manning Clark was going to say and tried to "heavy" the ABC to scrap the lectures. Manning Clark was interviewed about this. I can't recall word for word what he said but it was to the effect of "Keep talking Minister So-and-So. Just keep talking like that. There's a terrible retribution awaiting you."

He was right.

[spindrift]

Gillard is a factional girl, and while has strengths she is still their spokesperson and advisers.

Rudd isn't a factional guy nor is Penny Wong, as I recall the right faction wanted to get rid of her if not for the public outcry.

While in the scheme of things my opinion means truck all..I stated last year Labor needs to bring back Rudd on the basis of reading the public sentiment and not what the party factions say about the chap.

Observations is Labor will most likely lose with Gillard which means an Abbott government.

Not only on NTB1 that the RW people are buoyant over that fact, well at NTB1 it's more a frenzied madness of sorts... the psychology of it is inexplicable with hate filled obsession with muslims has gone to their heads.....must be a Mayan lunar calender thing...who knows..??.. I certainly don't know what goes on the minds of a conservative, to be sure what I can see in the public arena is more smiling happiness with the conservative voters that win is in the air, even though the poll is not until Sept. and perhaps just perhaps Gillard can turn it around, though Abbott is catching up as preferred PM, I doubts it meself.

What ever the scenario Labor will have to restructure itself from the loss and in the new party the proletariat members are the power and not the union pathed factions,.... either it does it before the election with Rudd at the helm for a possible win or after the election where Gillard is redundant as leader, unless miracles happen, where they might a week in politics is a long time and some manna from heaven changes Gillard's fortunes.

[Freddy]

Well, the polls are dire, to say the least. If the polls stay like this for much longer, then it will a matter of when, not if, Rudd returns.

[Earl Grey]

Rudd has come out to explain that he doesn't want the job - even if it becomes available and the Labor dills ask him to come back as leader.

I'm sorry, Freddy, it's all over.

Get your mind wrapped around 7 years at least of Liberal rule.

It won't be pretty.

[Earl Grey]

So, Freddy, you were right.

I trusted Rudd on his statement that he would never be Labor leader again.

More fool me.