Post by pim on Oct 29, 2012 10:59:02 GMT 11
The polls certainly are encouraging for Labor. On present indications even if it should lose it won't be a landslide loss and for the first time in a long time - in fact for the first time since the 2010 elections - I've allowed myself the question: "But what if she actually wins in 2013??"
If Gillard wins it'll kill Tony Abbott's scare campaigns stone dead and be a total repudiation of the sort of negative populism that he represents. Certainly it would end Tony Abbott's political career. In fact it would plunge the Liberals into deep crisis as they contemplate the abyss that awaits them after losing the unlosable elections. On those grounds alone it's important to support the return of the Gillard Government and this time with a majority in its own right and with its own mandate.
What a win for Gillard won't do, and it has to be acknowledged, is make the ghost of Kevin Rudd go away. By that I'm not talking about a Rudd challenge. That guy won't challenge again because he has no basis upon which to mount a challenge. It's as Simon Crean said: yes in hindsight it was a mistake to dump Rudd but all the King's horses and all the King's men aren't going to be able to put the Rudd Prime Ministership back together again. A Gillard Government is the reality for Labor. Rudd supporters should get over it and get on with it. Leave all the fantasies of denial of legitimacy to the Liberals. But the truth is that Gillard's prime ministership will always be tainted and haunted by the way she came to the office. It was the same with Malcolm Frraser. The best outcome they can hope for is for a Gillard win in 2013 in which Gillard wins a majority in her own right with no more hung parliament, and a win that Rudd has been clearly associated with in a positive way where he's been seen to be campaigning for Gillard and not for himself. That way a returned Gillard Government could offer him an overseas posting out of harm's way at a time when it could hold a by-election in Griffith without placing the Government in jeopardy.
The reason I've always supported Labor is that it's at its best when it's a party of ideas. By contrast the Liberals are a party of managers and budgets. Michael Kroger - a Liberal I've actually got a lot of time for as someone who puts the Liberal case in a dispassionate and lucid way so whenever I see him on Lateline I always find him worth listening to - actually put it in a nutshell when he said once on Lateline: "the political debate and contest in Australia is basically about the economy." That's it!! It's all these guys have! Budgets, bottom lines and bean counting. In the Name of the Budget, the Bottom Line and the Holy Surplus. Amen! They'resuspicious opf ideas and impatient with nuance. They're the ones who would look at Lindsey Tanner's book Politics with Purpose and look puzzled: "Huh??" Joe Hockey on the news that Australia had won a seat on the Security Council: "Will it help us stop the boats?" When bean counting is all you have, you can see why everything gets dumbed down. But Labor remains a party of ideas. It's why I keep on encouraging you guys to read Tanner's book. Don't change the subject when I bring it up. Tanner issues a warning to Labor about the danger of allowing Chifley's "light on the hill" to go out. And it will go out if it all becomes self-serving. A horrible example is the disgraceful dumping of Penny Wong from the N° 1 spot on the SA Labor Senate ticket in favour of a factional non-entity. It's the politics of "we're here because we're here" and is the very thing that Lindsey Tanner warrns against in the Labor Party. He calls for a party restructure and it's a call that Labor will ignore at its peril. We can deal with the issues in the Tanner book and still go on to win the next election. Gillard is today launching the White Paper on the Asian Century. It's pure Keating in its vision. The Liberals have nothing to match it. Lindsey Tanner I'm sure approves mightily.
If Gillard wins it'll kill Tony Abbott's scare campaigns stone dead and be a total repudiation of the sort of negative populism that he represents. Certainly it would end Tony Abbott's political career. In fact it would plunge the Liberals into deep crisis as they contemplate the abyss that awaits them after losing the unlosable elections. On those grounds alone it's important to support the return of the Gillard Government and this time with a majority in its own right and with its own mandate.
What a win for Gillard won't do, and it has to be acknowledged, is make the ghost of Kevin Rudd go away. By that I'm not talking about a Rudd challenge. That guy won't challenge again because he has no basis upon which to mount a challenge. It's as Simon Crean said: yes in hindsight it was a mistake to dump Rudd but all the King's horses and all the King's men aren't going to be able to put the Rudd Prime Ministership back together again. A Gillard Government is the reality for Labor. Rudd supporters should get over it and get on with it. Leave all the fantasies of denial of legitimacy to the Liberals. But the truth is that Gillard's prime ministership will always be tainted and haunted by the way she came to the office. It was the same with Malcolm Frraser. The best outcome they can hope for is for a Gillard win in 2013 in which Gillard wins a majority in her own right with no more hung parliament, and a win that Rudd has been clearly associated with in a positive way where he's been seen to be campaigning for Gillard and not for himself. That way a returned Gillard Government could offer him an overseas posting out of harm's way at a time when it could hold a by-election in Griffith without placing the Government in jeopardy.
The reason I've always supported Labor is that it's at its best when it's a party of ideas. By contrast the Liberals are a party of managers and budgets. Michael Kroger - a Liberal I've actually got a lot of time for as someone who puts the Liberal case in a dispassionate and lucid way so whenever I see him on Lateline I always find him worth listening to - actually put it in a nutshell when he said once on Lateline: "the political debate and contest in Australia is basically about the economy." That's it!! It's all these guys have! Budgets, bottom lines and bean counting. In the Name of the Budget, the Bottom Line and the Holy Surplus. Amen! They'resuspicious opf ideas and impatient with nuance. They're the ones who would look at Lindsey Tanner's book Politics with Purpose and look puzzled: "Huh??" Joe Hockey on the news that Australia had won a seat on the Security Council: "Will it help us stop the boats?" When bean counting is all you have, you can see why everything gets dumbed down. But Labor remains a party of ideas. It's why I keep on encouraging you guys to read Tanner's book. Don't change the subject when I bring it up. Tanner issues a warning to Labor about the danger of allowing Chifley's "light on the hill" to go out. And it will go out if it all becomes self-serving. A horrible example is the disgraceful dumping of Penny Wong from the N° 1 spot on the SA Labor Senate ticket in favour of a factional non-entity. It's the politics of "we're here because we're here" and is the very thing that Lindsey Tanner warrns against in the Labor Party. He calls for a party restructure and it's a call that Labor will ignore at its peril. We can deal with the issues in the Tanner book and still go on to win the next election. Gillard is today launching the White Paper on the Asian Century. It's pure Keating in its vision. The Liberals have nothing to match it. Lindsey Tanner I'm sure approves mightily.
